Fueling the Future: Top Biofuel Stocks to Watch in 2025

Biofuel companies are at the intersection of agriculture, energy, and climate policy—producing renewable alternatives like ethanol, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). With global mandates increasing, feedstock demand rising, and regulatory support amplifying, this sector has emerged as a key area for growth and investment.

Government Incentives and Policy Catalysts

Governments are boosting clean fuel mandates and offering sizable tax credits—such as the U.S. Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit and EU blending incentives—that directly improve profit margins and long-term viability of biofuel projects.

USDA Forecast and Market Demand

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that over 50% of U.S. soybean oil production will be absorbed by domestic biofuel consumption in the 2025/26 marketing year—up 11.5% from prior projections—underscoring surging feedstock demand.

SAF Growth Propels Major Players

Global SAF sales are soaring, with Neste reporting a near‑80% quarter-over-quarter increase and record volumes in renewable products—demonstrating real traction in jet fuel transitioning.

Price Volatility and Oil Market Drivers

Crude oil price movements—often tied to geopolitical events like Middle East tensions—can spike biofuel feedstock costs (e.g. soybean or palm oil), which subsequently boosts demand. EPA proposals are further increasing blend mandates, intensifying growth prospects.

U.S. Market Risks: Refinery Closures

Even with strong incentives, some facilities face financial strain. Cresta‑backed Braya Renewable Fuels halted operations due to expired tax credits and policy uncertainty—highlighting the fragility of the sector without consistent regulation.

Brazil’s Corn Ethanol Ramp-Up

Brazil’s ethanol mandate rose to 30% blend, and corn-based ethanol output surged 31% to 8.19 billion liters in the 2024/25 cycle. Corn-based ethanol now makes up 23% of the country’s total ethanol and is expected to climb to 40% by 2032.

Efficiency Gains with Lignocellulosic Biofuels

Early-stage companies like Comstock Inc. report over 100 gallons per dry ton production of fuel from woody biomass, indicating technical progress toward more efficient low-carbon fuel conversion.

Leading U.S. Ethanol Producers

REX American Resources (NYSE: REX) operates multiple ethanol plants, with expansion plans underway to increase capacity significantly by mid-2025.

Renewable Natural Gas and Biogas

Montauk Renewables (NASDAQ: MNTK) converts landfill and agricultural methane into renewable natural gas (RNG), generating $175–185 million in RNG revenue for FY2024.

Waste-to-Energy and RNG Integration

OPAL Fuels (NASDAQ: OPAL) partners with farms and landfills to produce RNG and renewable electricity—recently announcing four joint venture RNG projects totaling around 1.5 million MMBtu annual capacity.

Advanced Fuels and SAF Focus

Gevo (NASDAQ: GEVO) is at the forefront of ethanol‑to‑jet (ETJ) SAF development, backed by partnerships like with Axens, and building the Net‑Zero 1 facility in South Dakota to produce commercial SAF.

Specialty Biodiesel Chemicals

FutureFuel (NYSE: FF) produces biodiesel, ethanol, and specialty organic chemicals. It benefits from new U.S. tax credits under Section 45Z that enhance SAF and biodiesel margins.

Renewable Gasoline Companies

Verde Clean Fuels (NASDAQ: VGAS) aims to convert biomass into renewable gasoline compatible with standard engines. It is backed by Diamondback Energy through its subsidiary investments.

Agribusiness Exposure to Biofuels

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) supply feedstocks and are integrated in biodiesel and ethanol partnerships. ADM also invests in carbon capture.

Darling Ingredients’ Circular Biofuel Model

Darling Ingredients (NYSE: DAR) recycles food waste and animal by-products into biodiesel feedstock, making it a prominent small‑cap biofuel play.

Green Plains and Joint SAF Ventures

Green Plains (NASDAQ: GPRE) runs biorefineries and has a joint venture with United Airlines and Tallgrass Energy to supply bio-jet fuel. Ancora has pushed for a sale that could unlock significant upside.

Aemetis and Future Catalysts

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) is advancing SAF and RNG projects in India and the U.S., with multiple catalysts lined up through 2025 such as riverbank SAF plant financing and India contracts. Investors expect substantial growth if projects materialize.

Sector Risks and Volatility

Biofuel companies face volatility due to fluctuating feedstock prices, shifting mandates, oversupply pressures (e.g., Neste’s margin compression), and capital intensity of building new refineries. Without consistent policy support, operations can pause or scale back.

Market Trends and Outlook

Increasing demand for SAF in aviation—and limited battery alternatives—positions advanced biofuel companies like Gevo to benefit. Global transition plans forecast CAGR of 30–60% in SAF and low‑carbon biofuels.

Small-Cap Opportunities with Upside

Smaller firms like Gevo, Verde Clean, Aemetis, and Montauk offer higher growth potential—but also more risk. Hedge fund interest is rising in these names as tax policy rewards clean fuel production.

Investment Strategy Considerations

Investors should balance large players like ADM or Bunge for stability with high-growth small caps like Gevo and Aemetis for upside. Given policy sensitivity, diversified exposure and close monitoring of RIN mandates and tax credit updates is essential.

Long‑Term Prospects of Biofuels

The biofuel sector’s horizon is shaped by decarbonization mandates, future fuel standards, and need for scalable alternatives in aviation and heavy transport. Companies advancing SAF and RNG will likely be core to green infrastructure in transport.

Summary Table of Key Stocks

Ticker	Company	Focus Area
REX	REX American Resources	Ethanol production
MNTK	Montauk Renewables	Landfill RNG
OPAL	OPAL Fuels	RNG & renewable electricity
GEVO	Gevo	Advanced biofuels, SAF
FF	FutureFuel	Biodiesel & specialty fuels
VGAS	Verde Clean Fuels	Renewable gasoline tech
GPRE	Green Plains	Ethanol & SAF partnerships
ADM	Archer‑Daniels‑Midland	Feedstocks & biodiesel
BG	Bunge	Agri‑supply & biofuel JV
DAR	Darling Ingredients	Waste‑derived biodiesel
AMTX	Aemetis	SAF/RNG expansion plans